مدل‌سازی کمی آب زیرزمینی با استفاده از GMS-MODFLOW (مطالعه موردی: آبخوان شمیل در استان هرمزگان)

نوع مقاله : مقاله پژوهشی

نویسندگان

1 دانش‌آموخته کارشناسی ارشد، گروه علوم و مهندسی آب، دانشکده کشاورزی و منابع طبیعی، دانشگاه هرمزگان، بندرعباس، ایران.

2 دانشیار، گروه علوم و مهندسی آب، دانشکده کشاورزی و منابع طبیعی، دانشگاه هرمزگان، بندرعباس، ایران.

10.22034/hydro.2024.62911.1318

چکیده

آب زیرزمینی به‌عنوان یک منبع مهم تأمین آب در استان هرمزگان، به شمار می­آید. منابع آب زیرزمینی این استان به دلایل برداشت بیش از حد و تغییر اقلیم در معرض آسیب قرار گرفته است؛ لذا در شرایط کنونی ارزیابی پایداری منابع آب زیرزمینی این بخش از کشور ضروری به نظر می­رسد. ازاین‌رو، مطالعه حاضر باهدف واسنجی و اعتبار­سنجی یک مدل هیدرولوژیکی مناسب برای آبخوان دشت شمیل و  پیش­بینی تأثیر راهبرد­های مدیریتی مختلف بر وضعیت این آبخوان انجام گردید. در این راستا مدل MODFLOW و نرم­افزار سامانه مدل­سازی آب زیرزمینی (GMS) برای توسعه یک مدل مفهومی و ارزیابی رفتار آبخوان و روند­های آینده به کار برده شد. تفاوت بین تراز آب زیرزمینی مشاهده شده و محاسبه شده در مراحل واسنجی مدل با معیار ریشه میانگین مربعات خطا (RMSE) ارزیابی شد. میزان RMSE در واسنجی مدل پایدار و ناپایدار به ترتیب برابر با 2/1 و 4/1 به دست آمد که بیان‌کننده دقت قابل‌قبول مدل ساخته شده است. نتایج حاصل از واسنجی مدل در دو حالت پایدار و ناپایدار، حاکی از این بود که نواحی شمالی، مرکزی و جنوبی آبخوان دارای بیشترین ضریب هدایت هیدرولیکی (بین 20 الی m/day 50 هستند. پیش­بینی مدل از رفتار آبخوان با ادامه روند جاری در ده سال آینده حاکی از میزان افت تراز آب زیرزمینی به میزان 4/0 متر در هر سال بود. اجرای مدل با راهبردهای کاهش 20،10 و 30 درصدی برداشت آب از آبخوان، تراز آب زیرزمینی را به ترتیب 5/3، 5/4 و 5/5 درصد خواهد داد.

کلیدواژه‌ها

موضوعات

عنوان مقاله [English]

Quantitative Modeling of Groundwater Using GMS-MODFLOW (Case Study: Shamil Aquifer in the Hormozgan Province)

نویسندگان [English]

  • Davood Sabah Nia 1
  • Adnan Sadeghi-Lari 2
1 M.Sc. Alumnus, Department of Water Science and Engineering, Faculty of Agriculture and Natural Resources, University of Hormozgan, Bandar Abbas, Iran.
2 Associate Professor, Department of Water Science and Engineering, Faculty of Agriculture and Natural Resources, University of Hormozgan, Bandar Abbas, Iran.
چکیده [English]

Groundwater (GW) is a crucial water supply source in Hormozgan province. However, the GW resources are threatened due to excessive extraction, climate change, and consecutive droughts in this province. Therefore, evaluating the sustainability of GW resources is essential in this area. The present study aimed to calibrate and validate a suitable hydrological model of the Shamil aquifer and predict the effect of different management strategies on the aquifer condition. The MODFLOW model and Groundwater Modeling System (GMS) software were used to develop a conceptual model, and evaluate GW behavior and future trends. In the model calibration stages, the difference between observational and computational GW levels was assessed by the root mean square error (RMSE) criterion. The RMSE values were obtained as 1.2 and 1.4 for steady and unsteady calibration, respectively, indicating an acceptable accuracy of the constructed model. The model calibration in both steady and unsteady states revealed that the northern, central, and southern parts of the Shamil aquifer have the highest hydraulic conductivity coefficients, ranging about from 20 to 50 m/day. The model predictions indicate a GW level decline of approximately 0.4 m/year in this aquifer. The model run with strategies of reducing GW extraction by 20%, 10%, and 30% indicates that GW will levels increase by 5.3%, 5.4%, and 5.5%, respectively.

کلیدواژه‌ها [English]

  • Calibration
  • Prediction
  • Hydraulic Conductivity
  • Hydrological Model

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هیدروژئولوژی
دوره 9، شماره 1
ناشر
شهریور 1403
صفحه 57-71

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